Germany’s next move reshapes Europe’s fighter ambitions

The collapse of the German-French-Spanish Future Combat Air System (FCAS) has created an opening for Saab and Sweden’s aerospace sector. 

However, Germany’s search for a new combat aviation partner could also reshape the rival Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP), raising the prospect of Airbus and Germany joining the initiative.

Berlin has signalled that it either wants to lead a new sixth-generation fighter programme following FCAS’s collapse or join an existing effort, provided its role reflects the scale of its financial and industrial contribution.

At the end of May, Airbus confirmed that it views Saab as a potential partner in a future programme and is holding discussions with both Sweden and Germany.

In early June, the fighter aircraft pillar of FCAS was formally terminated. Airbus subsequently announced that it was assembling an industrial alliance for a new sixth-generation combat aircraft initiative, known as Team Gen 6.

Italy has now indicated that it is open to Germany joining GCAP. Lorenzo Mariani, recently appointed Chief Executive Officer of Leonardo, outlined that position in an interview with the Financial Times.

GCAP is led by Italy, the United Kingdom and Japan and aims to deliver a sixth-generation fighter aircraft capable of entering service around 2035.

The programme is among the most significant defence-industrial initiatives currently under way in Europe and Japan, bringing together Leonardo, BAE Systems and Japanese industry partners.

Mariani acknowledged that German participation at this stage could complicate progress, given that the existing partners have already agreed a division of industrial responsibilities. However, he argued that Germany could ultimately strengthen the programme through additional investment and industrial expertise.

Japan has previously expressed caution about admitting new partners, seeking to avoid disruption to the programme’s schedule and preserve the target in-service date of 2035.

Questions also remain over the United Kingdom’s long-term funding commitment. Nevertheless, Mariani said he expects London to remain engaged.

- Combat aviation is such an important area for the United Kingdom that it will not abandon it, he said.

Leonardo previously worked alongside both BAE Systems and Airbus on the Eurofighter Typhoon programme. Mariani pointed to that experience as evidence that wider European industrial cooperation could be accommodated within GCAP.

For Saab and the wider Swedish defence-industrial base, the implications remain uncertain. 

Whether Germany pursues a new programme with Airbus, deepens cooperation with Sweden or seeks entry into GCAP could significantly influence the future shape of Europe’s next-generation combat aviation landscape.