Nuclear debate turns spotlight on Nordic industrial and technological capacity

Geopolitical shifts have brought into the open what until recently was considered a political taboo in the Nordic region: whether the countries should contemplate developing nuclear weapons if confidence in the US nuclear umbrella weakens.

In recent months, commentators have argued that the option should at least be examined. Among them is Johannes Kibsgaard, a lieutenant colonel and instructor at the Norwegian Defence University College’s Staff School in Oslo.

- Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden should consider how to ensure their own nuclear protection, he wrote in War on the Rocks.

Speaking to Danish Broadcasting Corporation, DR, last week, Mikkel Vedby Rasmussen of the University of Copenhagen concurred.

- This is the biggest question in European politics, he said.

- I could easily imagine a Nordic co-operation on nuclear weapons and their delivery systems.

Positive synergies

Setting aside political, legal and ethical constraints, as well as wider geopolitical consequences, the practical question is whether the Nordic region possesses the industrial base and expertise required for such an undertaking.

-I am neither an economist nor an industrial expert, but I am nevertheless fairly certain that a massive cross-Nordic technological project of this kind would generate significant positive synergies for business and education across the region, Kibsgaard told Defence Nordic.

Fabian Hoffmann, a doctoral candidate at the University of Oslo, argues that, in purely technological terms, the Nordic countries could develop nuclear weapons if political leaders chose to do so.

- In the medium to long term, the Nordic region would have access to a competent technological and industrial base that could, in principle, develop and sustain a nuclear weapons programme, he said, citing capabilities in nuclear energy, metallurgy, missile technology and advanced electronics.

He stressed, however, that this would be a long-term prospect.

- There is no realistic way to rapidly repurpose existing industries to accelerate the development of a nuclear weapon.

Difficult to conceal

Sweden maintained a nuclear weapons programme between 1945 and 1972 and reached the technical threshold to develop a weapon, according to Martin Goliath of the Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI), speaking to Expressen last year.

- If you really want to build nuclear weapons, it is a very large undertaking - an enormous industrial project comparable to developing a new fighter aircraft, he said.

In an estimate cited by the Danish newspaper Weekendavisen, Kibsgaard suggested that such a programme could cost more than €80bn (around 1,000bn NOK).

This is based on expenditure levels in Europe’s two nuclear-armed states, France and the United Kingdom.

Any attempt to fast-track such a programme would be difficult to conceal and could carry significant security risks, including the possibility of pre-emptive action against relevant industrial infrastructure, Hoffmann argued.

- For these reasons, I view proposals for a Nordic nuclear bomb with scepticism. If this were a viable solution, it would merit serious consideration, but I am fundamentally not convinced, he said.